There are 6 live Super Rugby matches taking place on Saturday and we take a look at each of them from a betting perspective.
Sunwolves v Blues – click here to bet
The Sunwolves have had just a single victory this season and that was at home against the Bulls in round 7. They have since lost 8 successive matches most recently going down by 37 points to the Stormers in Cape Town. Their only other home game against New Zealand opposition was 17-83 loss in round 1 against the Hurricanes.
The Blues have won 50% of their matches this season but unfortunately they are part of a strong New Zealand conference that won’t feature in the playoffs. Their away form has been erratic with 3 wins from their 7 matches and all 3 of those wins came against Australian opposition.
These sides have never met in Super Rugby.
Sunwolves +31.5 at 9/10
Blues -31.5 at 9/10
Suggested bet: Handicap, Blues -31.5 at 9/10.
The Sunwolves have looked very poor in their last few matches and I expect them to end their season the same way they started it and that is with a big defeat at the hand of New Zealand opposition.
Chiefs v Brumbies – click here to bet
The Chiefs are currently 6th on the log and they can give themselves a chance of finishing 5th with a big victory over the Brumbies. They have won 6 of their 7 home matches this season with their only defeat coming against the Crusaders and that was actually on neutral territory in Fiji. In their 2 home matches against Australian opposition they beat the Waratahs by 15 points and the Reds by 29 points.
The Brumbies are guaranteed to finish 4th on the log as they have topped the Australian conference this despite the fact that they have only won 6 of their 14 matches this season. They have won 3 of their 7 matches on the road but their 2 games in New Zealand have been lost and while they only went down to the Crusaders by 4 points in round 1 they were badly beaten by 35 points by the Hurricanes in round 9.
Chiefs -19.5 at 9/10
Brumbies +19.5 at 9/10
Suggested bet: Handicap, Chiefs -19.5 at 9/10.
There has been plenty of money for this handicap this week as punters are focusing on the fact that the Chiefs have more to play for than the Brumbies and even at current line of -19.5 I am happy to get in involved.
Hurricanes v Crusaders – click here to bet
The Hurricanes have only lost 3 matches all season but they still find themselves trailing the Crusaders who won every game. They have only lost 1 match at home all season and that was in their last game on the 9th of June when they went down 14-17 to the Chiefs. In their only other home match against New Zealand opposition this season they beat the Highlanders 41-15 in round 4.
The Crusaders have won all 7 away matches and against New Zealand opposition on the road they beat the Highlanders by 3 and the Chiefs by 7 points with the latter game actually taking place in Fiji.
The Crusaders beat the Hurricanes 20-12 at home earlier this season but the Hurricanes have won the last 3 matches played between the sides in Wellington all of which have been by margins of 7 points or less.
Hurricanes -2.5 at 9/10
Crusaders +2.5 at 9/10
Suggested bet: Winning margin, Hurricanes under 12.5 points at 16/10.
This should be a typical, close and exciting New Zealand derby and I feel that the home team will have enough to edge it and that the value lies in backing them to win by 1 to 12 points.
Force v Waratahs – click here to bet
The Force beat the Rebels 31-22 in Perth last week and that took their home record this season to 3 wins and 4 losses. This will be their 3rd home game against Australian opposition having also beaten the Reds by 7 points back in round 2.
The Waratahs started off as Conference favourites but have only won 4 matches all season. Last week they were very poor at home losing by 13 points to the Jaguares and they have only won 2 of their 7 matches on the road but both those were against Australian opposition, beating the Reds by 3 and the Rebels by 7.
These sides met earlier in the season with the Waratahs beating the Force 19-13 in Sydney and their last visit to Perth was in April of 2016 when they won by 36 points.
Force +2.5 at 9/10
Waratahs -2.5 at 9/10
Suggested bet: Full-time result, Force win at 12/10.
I am a bit surprised to see the Force starting as underdogs at home as they have actually had a better season than the Waratahs and I think they can sign off with a victory.
Bulls v Stormers – click here to bet
The Bulls have had a terrible season and last week they lost 31-30 to the Kings at home. Perhaps the most disappointing thing about the performance was the fact that they were coming off an excellent victory over the Sharks away the week before. The Bulls have lost their last 4 matches at Loftus and this will be their 3rd home derby against South African opposition having lost to the Kings and beaten the Cheetahs by 6.
The Stormers have guaranteed their playoff spot and they will be looking to take some momentum into the playoffs. They beat the Sunwolves by 37 points in Cape Town last week and prior to that beat the Cheetahs by 6 in a high scoring encounter in Bloemfontein. In other away matches against South African opposition this season they lost to the Sharks by 12 in Durban and beat the Kings by 31 points in Port Elizabeth back in round 3.
The Stormers beat the Bulls 37-24 when they met in Cape Town earlier this season and total points punters should note that the last 9 matches between the sides at Loftus have had 42 points or less in them.
Bulls +3.5 at 9/10
Stormers -3.5 at 9/10
Suggested bet: Bulls win at 13/10.
This is a game where despite the stats suggesting otherwise I actually fancy that we will see a lot of points but those lines will only be out closer to kick off. In the interim I am going to have a bet on the Bulls who I feel will be the more focused of the sides and can take advantage of the Stormers team that is already planning for the playoffs.
Sharks v Lions – click here to bet
The Sharks have won 9 of their 14 matches this season and 5 of those victories have come at home where their only loss was against the Bulls two weeks ago when they went down 30-17. They also drew 9-9 with the Rebels back in round 9. The Sharks home games have tended to be low scoring this season and have only averaged 38 points each, an average of 4 tries per game.
The Lions go in search of their 12th successive victory and they will know by the time of kick off whether they have a chance of finishing top of the overall log or not. This will be their 4th away match against South African opposition having beaten the Cheetahs by 3, the Kings by 23 and the Stormers by 13.
These sides met earlier in the year in Johannesburg with the Lions edging in a close game 34-29, their 4th successive victory over the Sharks.
Sharks +8.5 at 9/10
Lions at -8.5 at 9/10
Suggested bet: Hold fire!
This is a game where I would recommend waiting for the outcome of the Crusaders against the Hurricanes in Wellington before placing a bet. If the Hurricanes beat the Crusaders then I would be fairly confident on the Lions -8.5 handicap as they will know that a victory would see them finish top of the log. If the Crusaders get up though then this game takes on much less meaning for the Lions and I would be very hesitant to back them on the handicap.
Note: Prices correct at the time of posting but are subject to change