EPL Matchday 27, Betting Blog

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There is a full house of English Premier League fixtures this weekend and our man takes a look at them from a betting angle.

Saturday

Manchester City look to have things wrapped up at the top of the table but there is still a big battle going on for 2nd, 3rd and 4th place and things are even more competitive at the bottom of the log where 7 of the bottom 8 teams are within 3 points of each other heading into the weekend.

We don’t have to wait long for the biggest game of the weekend and Saturday’s early kick off sees Tottenham up against Arsenal at Wembley.  Spurs are priced at even money favourites and they are on an unbeaten 12 match run at home.  Arsenal are currently 6th on the table, 4 points and 1 position behind Spurs and while they beat Everton easily at home last time out they have only taken 1 point from their last 9 on their travels.

10th placed Everton host 14th placed Crystal Palace.  Everton are priced at 5/4 to win at home with the draw 9/4 and Crystal Palace 5/2.  Palace have only won 2 on the road this season and I probably would be leaning to the home team or a draw here.

Stoke (12/10) are currently 18th on the table and they have a reasonable record at home with 5 wins and 3 draws in 13 starts.  Brighton are 53/20 and have only taken 2 points from the last 15 they have played for on the road and this is not a game I will be getting too involved in.

West Ham have only lost once in their last 5 home matches and they play against a Watford side that has only taken 1 point from the last 18 they have played for on the road.  The Hammers are 15/10 with the draw at 23/10 and Watford 39/20 but this looks a tricky affair as Watford certainly played well under their new manager on Monday night when beating 10 man Chelsea 4-1 at home.

Swansea have climbed out of the relegation zone thanks to an impressive 4 match run which has seen them take 8 points out of a possible 12.  They host a Burnley side that has not won in their last 6 away matches, drawing 4 and losing 2 but their most recent match was a creditable 1-1 home draw with Manchester City.  Swansea are priced at 29/20 favourites for the game at the time of writing with the draw a touch shorter than what we are used to in the EPL 2/1 and Burnley 47/20 for the away win.

Saturday’s late kick off sees runaway leaders Manchester City at home to Leicester who currently sit 8th on the table.  While City have dropped some points on the road of late, they have won their last 12 in a row at home and they have scored at least 3 goals in their last 5 home matches so there is no surprise to see them quoted at 2/9 to win this one.  The draw is 6/1 and Leicester can be backed at 11/1 but given their recent away record which has seen them take just 1 point from a possible 12 you would have to be a brave or perhaps a foolish person to put your money on the visitors here.

Sunday

There are 3 matches on Sunday and the first of those sees Huddersfield priced at 9/4 to beat Bournemouth at home.  Bournemouth are currently 9th on the table after successive victories over Stoke and Chelsea and they are unbeaten in their last 7 matches which explains the fact that they are 14/10 favourites on the road.  Huddersfield have only taken 2 points out of the last 15 they have played for at home and they have conceded 7 goals in their last 2 defeats.

Newcastle are hovering just outside the relegation zone in 16th spot and they haven’t won in their last 4 matches.  Even worse for Newcastle when you look at their home record that they have come off 3 successive home draws and that was on the back of 5 successive home losses so there is no surprise to see them as 9/2 underdogs against Manchester United.  United’s most recent away match was a 2-0 defeat to Spurs but prior to that they had gone 6 matches unbeaten on the road with 5 wins and a draw.  United are 13/20 for the victory perhaps the goals markets might be better looking at here with the last 2 head-to-heads having delivered 5 and 6 goals respectively.

Southampton are 15th on the log and they have at least gone 4 games without defeat beating West Brom 3-2 away in their last start.  Southampton have now gone 6 home games without a victory and all 6 of those games have seen both teams find the net.  The home team are priced at 69/20, the draw 57/20 and Liverpool 8/10 for the victory.  Liverpool have won 4 of their last 6 away matches and have scored 2 goals or more in 5 of their last 6 away games.

We will take a look at the Chelsea v West Brom match in a separate preview on Monday.

Suggested bets for the weekend

Tottenham v Arsenalclick here to bet

Tottenham win at 1/1 – Spurs have an excellent home record and Arsenal have battled on the road of late.

 

West Ham v Watfordclick here to bet

Both teams to score, YES at 15/20 – Both teams have scored in West Ham’s last 4 home games and while Watford have not been prolific in terms of goal getting on the road they do look a different proposition under their new manager and I think we could see some action here.

 

Swansea v Burnleyclick here to bet

Swansea win at 29/20 – Burnley have slipped into old habits and they have been terrible on the road while Swansea have looked a rejuvenated side and having beaten Arsenal and Liverpool at home in their last two home games, I will be very surprised if they don’t roll Burnley over here.

 

Manchester City v Leicesterclick here to bet

Home team goals, 3 or more at 15/20 – This bet would have arrived in City’s last 5 home games and also 10 out of 13 home games this season so the 15/20 looks like value.

 

Huddersfield v Bournemouthclick here to bet

Bournemouth win at 14/10 – I don’t often go for an away team in an EPL fixture but Bournemouth are playing some superb football and even beat Chelsea on the road whereas Huddersfield are struggling at home.

Prices correct at time of writing but subject to change

 

 

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