Italy host New Zealand at the Olympic Stadium in Rome on Saturday and bookmakers expect a wounded All Blacks side to bounce back strongly.
Italy found Australia too strong for them last week losing by 19 points despite a strong start which saw them dominate the opening quarter. They had previously seen off Georgia by 11 points at home but were hammered in early November 7-54 against Ireland in Chicago. Italy lost all 3 of their home matches in the Six Nations.
New Zealand suffered their second defeat of the year when they lost 16-9 to Ireland in a thrilling encounter in Dublin last week. They had previously come from behind to beat England 16-15 in a thriller at Twickenham. The loss to Ireland broke a run of 9 consecutive victories on the road for New Zealand.
New Zealand have won all 6 of their matches in Italy and most of them by massive margins, including beating them by 58 points in 2016. The closest victory that has ever come was a 14 point defeat in 2009.
Betting – click here to bet
New Zealand 1/100
Italy +32.5 at 9/10
New Zealand -32.5 at 9/10
Suggested bet: Alternative Winning Margin, New Zealand by 31-40 points at 33/10.
The handicap for this game looks fairly well set but I do expect something of a New Zealand backlash after the Ireland defeat and when the game opens up, I think they will pull clear to win easily, hopefully by between 30 and 40 points.
Note: Prices correct at the time of posting but are subject to change