Super Rugby Preview, Saturday 4 May

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Super Rugby fans are in for a treat on Saturday with no fewer than 5 and we suggest a bet in each of them.

OUTRIGHT BETTING UPDATE

The Crusaders are the 6/10 favourites at the time of writing ahead of the Hurricanes at 19/4 and the Highlanders at 9/1.  You can get 17/1 the Rebels and 18/1 and better the balance – click here for outright and conference betting

 

Hurricanes v Rebelsclick here to bet

The Hurricanes turned in one of their more impressive performances of the season when they beat the Chiefs by 28 points in Wellington last week.  They have only lost 2 games this season and both of those losses have come against the Crusaders.  Hurricanes home games have averaged 54 points each this season.

The Rebels won 5 of their first 7 matches, but have slumped to back to back defeats against the Stormers at home and the Waratahs away.  They have won 2 out of 5 on the road where their matches have averaged 52 points and they make their first trip to New Zealand this season.

The Hurricanes have hosted the Rebels 3 times, winning all of them comfortably, most recently in 2017 when they won 71-6.

Handicap:

Hurricanes -12.5 at 9/10

Rebels +12.5 at 9/10

Suggested Bet:  Hurricanes (-12.5) at 9/10

The Hurricanes won some of the early matches without looking that impressive, but they are starting to get better and better and they can beat a Rebels side that is showing signs of faltering in recent weeks.

 

Highlanders v Chiefsclick here to bet

The Highlanders are coming off back to back wins, away at the Sunwolves and at home to the Blues and last week they were very impressive in dismantling the Japanese side 52-0.  This will be their 4th home matching having beaten the Blues and the Reds and lost to the Hurricanes.

The Chiefs lost their first 4 games of the season they then had a draw and 3 successive victories, but they are coming off back to back defeats at home to the Lions and away against the Hurricanes.  Last week was a particularly disappointing performance as they were beaten by 28 points by their fellow New Zealanders.  Chiefs have won 2 out of 5 games this season, but they have lost both New Zealand Derbies at home.  They do though have a good recent record in Dunedin, having won their last 2 matches here.

Handicap:

Highlanders -10.5 at 9/10

Chiefs +10.5 at 9/10

Suggested Bet:  Handicap, Highlanders (-10.5) at 9/10

This Chiefs team look out of sorts and I think the Highlanders can gradually get on top of this one and win going away.

 

Brumbies v Bluesclick here to bet

The Brumbies are coming off a tour which saw them beat the Stormers in Cape Town and lose narrowly to the Jaguares in Argentina.  They are very much in the Australian Conference race and are 28/10 second favourites at the time of writing.  They lost their opening home match to the Rebels, but subsequently won 3 in a row in Canberra where the matches have averaged 54 points.

The Blues won 4 matches in a row at one point, but have now lost back to back against the Chiefs in Hamilton and the Highlanders in Dunedin.  Their performance in Dunedin was particularly disappointing and they ended up going down by 12 points thanks only to a consolation try.  The Blues have lost all 4 of their away matches and their away games have averaged just 43 points each.

The Brumbies and Blues have shared their spoils over the last 4 meetings in Canberra and they last met in 2017 with the Blues winning 18-12.

Handicap

Brumbies +0.5 at 9/10

Blues +0.5 at 9/10

Suggested Bet:  Winning Margin, Blues by under 12.5 points at 18/10

This should be a tight match and while I can’t back the Blues with any confidence I think they can take advantage of the fact that the Brumbies must be feeling the effects after a tiring road trip.

 

Bulls v Waratahsclick here to bet

The Bulls have gone from favourites to under 4/1 underdogs to win the South African Conference which continues to be very competitive.  They were extremely disappointing last week in losing by a point to the Stormers and they certainly had their chances to win the game in the second half.  They have also been a bit disappointing at home, winning 3 and losing 2 and their home games have averaged 52 points this season, fairly low by Loftus standards.

The Waratahs are out to beyond 6/1 for the Australian Conference now.  They have been very inconsistent and last week lost by 8 points to the Sharks at home.  This will be just their 4th away match having beaten the Sunwolves, but lost to the Brumbies and Blues and over the last two seasons they have made 4 visits to South Africa, losing 3 and drawing 1 and all 3 of those losses came by margins of 13 points or more.

The Bulls have an excellent home record against the Waratahs winning 6 in a row, but all 6 of those wins have been by margins of 12 points or less.

Handicap:

Bulls -7.5 at 9/10

Waratahs +7.5 at 9/10

Suggested Bet:  Handicap, Bulls (-7.5) at 9/10

Both these sides are struggling with injuries and inconsistency, but the Bulls should be too strong for this Waratahs side at home and can win by a double point margin.

 

Jaguares v Stormersclick here to bet

The Jaguares come from rank underdogs to be the favourites to win the South African Conference at 57/20.  They have won their last 3 games in succession, 2 in South Africa and then last week at home to the Brumbies.  Their home games have been a mixed back with 3 wins and 2 losses and they have averaged 43 points each.

The Stormers have also been inconsistent and they beat the Bulls by a point last week, having lost to the Brumbies by 2 points in Cape Town the week before.  They did beat the Rebels in their last away start but overall have only won 2 out of 6 on the road and their away games averaged just 44 points each.

The sides have met twice in Argentina with the Jaguares winning by 11 last year and the Stormers by 5 in 2016.  The two matches combined averaged just 30 points.

Handicap

Jaguares -3.5 at 9/10

Stormers +3.5 at 9/10

Suggested Bet:  Handicap, Jaguares (-3.5) at 9/10

The Stormers have been hard hit by injuries and are not renowned to be good travellers and they face a Jaguares side with plenty of momentum, add to that the fact that the Stormers are struggling with injuries, I make this my bet of the weekend.

Note:  Prices correct at the time of posting but are subject to change

 

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