Super Rugby Round 5, Friday Preview

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There are 3 Super Rugby matches taking place on Friday and we take a look at each of them from a betting angle.

To start with lets catch up with the outright betting where the Crusaders have now firmed to 15/20 favourites after looking close to unbeatable so far this season.  The Hurricanes remain second in the betting at 17/4 and you can get 11/1 and better about the balance – click here for outright and conference betting

 

Chiefs v Hurricanesclick here to bet

The Chiefs have got off to an awful start and have lost all 4 of their matches this season including home games against the Highlanders and the Sunwolves.  They started the Sunwolves game 25 point favourites but were beaten by 15 in what must be a low point for the franchise.  Last week they were in Christchurch where they found the Crusaders too strong, losing by 29 points.

The Hurricanes have won 3 out of 4 matches including beating the Highlanders 25-22 in Wellington last week.  They have played on the road twice this season beating the Waratahs by a point in Sydney and getting beaten by 16 points by the Crusaders in Christchurch.

The Chiefs have a strong home record against the Hurricanes, winning 5 of their last 6 games and the last 5 head-to-heads hosted by the Chiefs have had winning margins of under 13 points.

Handicap

Chiefs +8.5 at 9/10

Hurricanes -8.5 at 9/10

Suggested bet:  Handicap, Hurricanes (-8.5) at 9/10

The Hurricanes pack is a bit of a concern, but they should have the beating of a Chiefs side which has really looked out of sorts to date.  I am going for the visitors here by 9 or more.

 

Brumbies v Waratahsclick here to bet

The Brumbies are battling this season with just 1 win in their opening 4 games, that victory came at home against the Chiefs and they subsequently lost to the Hurricanes and the Rebels away.  Last week was particularly disappointing in Melbourne because they let a big lead slip.

The Waratahs have only played 3 matches, winning 2 and losing 1 and last week they were too strong for the Reds in Sydney winning by 11 points. Their only away game to date was against the Sunwolves where they snuck up 31-30.

The Waratahs have a pretty good record in Canberra winning 2 of their last 3, both wins coming by single figure margins and total points punters should note that 9 of the last 10 head-to-heads in Canberra have had less than 50 points.

Handicap

Brumbies -0.5 at 9/10

Waratahs +0.5 at 9/10

Suggested bet:  Waratahs win at 1/1

As the betting suggests this should be a tight game, but the Waratahs look the better side to me and their record shows that they are capable of winning in Canberra.

 

Stormers v Jaguaresclick here to bet

The Stormers are coming off a bye having won 2 of their opening 3 matches.  They opened their campaign with a big loss in Pretoria, but then edged the Lions in Cape Town and beat the Sharks by 5 points in Durban with both South African derby victories low scoring affairs.

The Jaguares opened with 3 home matches, losing to the Lions, beating the Blues and the Bulls and last week they played the Lions on the road, scoring late tries to lose 39-47.  The loss means the Jaguares have lost their last 10 matches in South Africa and they have played the Stormers at Newlands twice going down by 8 points in 2018 and 7 points in 2017.

Handicap

Stormers -7.5 at 9/10

Jaguares +7.5 at 9/10

Suggested bet:  Winning Margin, Stormers under 12.5 points at 17/10

I can’t see the Stormers breaking clear of the Jaguares as the Lions did and this should be a tight attritional affair, the Stormers get the nod for the win, but like the previous two encounters between the sides at Newlands I think it will be close.

 

Note:  Prices correct at the time of posting but are subject to change

 

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